Humans naturally think about their own behaviors in terms of peak and trough performance levels, rather than means or medians. Without any performance tracking, we know our limits in a variety of domains. Each time we attempt a performance episode in any skilled domain, these limits change, yielding a learning curve. It has a characteristic tempo, depending on the episodic performance quality, as well as a tempo across episodes, that is correlated with quality. I prefer this model of a learning curve that I made up to the usual smooth, S-shaped one with a plateau at the end. I’ll explain why in a bit. This picture is related to what I called the Freytag Staircase in the book, but is not quite the same.
A Proposed Grand Narrative for the History of Debt
August 10, 2011 By
Despite my deliberate focus on individual-level narratives, the urge to apply the narrative structures discussed in Tempo to groups is irresistible to some people. This is interesting, because I personally have been wary of going there. I am not quite satisfied with how the models bootstrap up to group and grand narratives. But I am sort of happy that people are testing the ideas out in domains for which they weren’t really designed. If it works out, I’ll hopefully be able to build out the theory further.
Stefan King liked the Double Freytag as a way to structure the story of Western art. Critt Jarvis seems to believe it can help make sense of the ongoing political story of Honduras. And now Julio Rodriguez is making a bold attempt to tease out the narrative structure in David Graeber’s book, Debt: the first 5000 years.
Check it out: Towards a Grand Narrative of Civilization.
The title is ambitious, but I think justified. I’ve read an extract from the book, and Graeber makes a convincing case that the story of debt is the story of civilization. So I think Julio is justified in going hunting for the main narrative arc within the book.
Chet Richards’ Review of Tempo on Fabius Maximus
July 24, 2011 By
Chet Richards, author of Certain to Win and a close associate of John Boyd just posted a thought-provoking review of Tempo on the Fabius Maximus blog. I get a stamp of approval, overall:
[Tempo] is a synthesis, what Boyd called a “snowmobile,” that combines concepts from across a variety of disciplines to produce a cornucopia of new ideas, insights and speculations. You may be confused, challenged, outraged, and puzzled (some of the language can be academic), but you’ll rarely be bored because every chapter, often every page, has something you can add to the parts bin for building your own snowmobiles.
Overall, Chet comes to the conclusion that Tempo resonates with the Boydian spirit of decision-making. I don’t entirely get out of jail free though:
Perhaps his unfamiliarity with the original briefings, however, led him to make one characterization that is incorrect, although widely believed:
The central idea in OODA is a generalization of Butterfly-Bee: to simply operate at a higher tempo than your opponent. (118)
Guilty as charged. I didn’t spend enough time exploring how OODA gets beyond merely “faster tempo” to “inside the adversary’s tempo.” That’s something I hope to explore in a more nuanced way in a future edition. Over the last 6-8 months, I think I’ve come to understand the subtleties a lot better, and the challenge is to now spend more time thinking through clear definitions and examples.
There are several other great suggestions that I am filing away for future use, and things I need to clarify better. I definitely had to leave out more material than I could include in the book, so it is great to have encouragement for follow-on work from a leading steward of the Boydian tradition of decision-making.
Tempo and OODA: The Backstory
July 22, 2011 By
John Boyd’s OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, act) often comes up when I discuss Tempo with people from the more esoteric decision-making traditions. Very few people in the decision sciences are even aware of OODA, despite Boyd’s significant technical contributions to fighter combat tactics and energy-maneuverability theory, which preceded his more conceptual, almost metaphysical OODA work. This is because, despite the very technical look of the classic OODA diagram, there is an element of mysticism surrounding OODA.
So I thought I’d tell the back-story of how OODA informed Tempo, and is continuing to inform the ongoing conversation that I hope will feed into a more ambitious second edition.
But first a heads-up: I’ll be participating in a panel discussion about OODA and its relevance to the business/startup world next Wednesday, July 27th, 11:55 – 1:00. It’s a free call-in webinar, but space is limited. If you’re interested, register here. The event is hosted by Sean Murphy, one of my early supporters in getting the Tempo project off the ground, a few years ago.
Now for the backstory. There’s two parts to it: the nature of the “Boydian community” itself, and how the ideas ended up informing Tempo.
Storytelling for Problem-Solving
July 13, 2011 By
Yesterday, I spoke about Tempo at the SoCAL Kanban/Lean Software Meetup, hosted by Pascal Pinck. It was an interesting mixed audience of about 40 odd — designers, startup types, big company types and a sprinkling of entertainment industry people and others. Since this was Los Angeles, I decided to focus on the storytelling ideas in the book.
Here are the slides and video; both have the voice track. Should be self-explanatory whether or not you’ve read the book.
View more presentations from vgururao.
Venkatesh Rao on storytelling and complexity from Pascal Pinck on Vimeo.
The End of the Parade
July 7, 2011 By
A foundational concept in twentieth century sociology is the cohort, a group of people starting something (such as life, employment or college) at the same time. Our view of the human world is based on the idea of cohort-based groups marching (theoretically) in lock-step through life. From grades in school to leagues of increasing skill-levels in sports to career paths within corporations, our world is full of groups navigating the world to the sound of the same drumbeat. If all the world is a stage, the larger drama is a parade of cohorts marching, dancing or straggling along drunkenly, but rarely breaking ranks.
Something very interesting is going on with cohorts today. The parade is ending.
Cohorts used to last as coherent social units all the way from high school to retirement. Now they fall apart within a few years of college. Different patterns of organization take over very quickly. To understand what’s going on, it’s useful to think in terms of the metaphor of racing and what happens to different start-time cohorts. Last year, I ran a series of five 5k races, and observed some very entertaining sorting effects, which I captured at the time in this sketch of my anecdotal observations (and unkind judgments):
Something very similar to this is happening in the human drama. If you’ll forgive some hyperbole, the global drumbeat is faltering. Cogs and mavericks alike are struggling. Cogs are wandering around wondering what to do with themselves. Mavericks are so used to defining their identities in terms of breaking ranks and following the beat of a different drum, that they too are struggling with a world that is not framed by a parade. Increasingly, there is nothing to rebel against.
Never Stop Marketing, Silver Spring, MD
June 29, 2011 By
And the indefatigable Jeremy Epstein sends his copy off on its journeys :)
Kindle Edition Status, Glossary, Global Availability, Road Trip Contd.
June 24, 2011 By
Hi folks:
I’ve been busy with background stuff for the last month. I’ve mainly been evaluating different approaches to growing this site and tried a few experimental ideas that didn’t work out well enough to post.
But I finally have a sense of where I want to take this, so expect to see much more steady action on this blog from now on.
Updates on some routine stuff:
- The book is now available in most corners of the world via the Book Depository. In the US, Canada and UK of course, it is probably easiest to get via Amazon (click here for links).
- Yes, yes, I am working on the Kindle edition. That’s one of the back-end things that’s holding up this blog. It’s not hard, but it IS an annoying typesetting chore (I basically have to re-typeset the LaTeX source into html, a pain).
- I am also working on a glossary which many readers have asked for. I’ll post it here when it is reasonably complete, and include it in the next edition, whenever that happens.
- I’ll be continuing my road trip to promote the book starting approximately July 11. I’ll be in LA for a few days, the Bay Area for a few weeks, and Portland/Seattle/Vancouver, BC for another week or so. Stay tuned for further details, which I’ll post on ribbonfarm.com
In the mean time, thanks for your support of the book, and do let me know what else you’d like to see on this site. My overall goal is to use this site to take the book to a whole new level rather than just adding marginal value. In fact, if things go according to plan and the book turns out to have enduring value for enough people, my plan is to gradually shift the center of gravity of the conversation from the book’s future editions to this site.
Bardic Mystique: Maastricht, Netherlands
June 6, 2011 By
Stefan King's copy is starting its journey in Maastricht.
