← Quora archive  ·  2011 Oct 03, 2011 02:29 PM PDT

Question

If an apocalyptic event were to occur over the next 10-20 years, what shape is it most likely to take?

Answer

The top 5 in my subjective Bayesian order...

  1. A water-related conflict that escalates into a global-economy-disrupting "third world war" (in both senses of "third"). The violence may be limited to Asia and Africa, but OECD will also go into a tailspin because it will be relying on the younger third world population to support its aging population.
  2. A highly contagious and quickly fatal disease breaking out from a factory farm somewhere and decimating the population in ways that makes civil society break down.
  3. Rapid collapse of the dollar via runaway inflation and reduction of all dollar-denominated assets to junk status, with no other currency ready to step in and fill the void.
  4. A major collapse of critical software infrastructure with massive data loss due to some mix of internal entropy, the Conficker worm and the work of Anonymous.
  5. A world-wide anarcho-socialist class struggle (i.e. London Riots+Occupy Wall Street x 1000, armed, and determined to wipe out all debts, destroy the property of the rich etc... basically a worldwide French Revolution led by (say), radicals like Seb Paquet)